Spatial Simulation of Future Changes in the LULC for Babil Governorate Using Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov Model

Babil Governorate has witnessed radical changes in land use and land cover (LULC) over the past few decades, driven by rapid population growth and economic development. Despite this, knowledge remains limited regarding land use patterns and the mechanisms of change driven by human activities. Therefore, there is an urgent need to study the transformations of LULC in Babil Governorate to determine the factors influencing these changes, and to predict their future trajectories. This study aims to assess LULC changes during the period 1990-2020 and to predict the expected changes up to 2050 by analyzing land use and land cover data for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. By applying the LULC transition matrix and the Markov model, the study could simulate the expected LULC patterns for the study area in the future. The study results show that the region will experience substantial changes in LULC during the period 2030-2050. Urban areas are expected to increase gradually, while bare land is expected to decline significantly. Water bodies are also expected to grow, and vegetation lands are expected to remain relatively stable. These changes reflect the intertwined effects of urban expansion, climate change, water inflows from neighboring countries, and shifts in land use patterns. The results indicate that current LULC trends will continue over the next three decades. This study can provide decision-makers with the necessary tools to develop sustainable land and water management policies.